New analysis shows shift in urban party support since 2005 election result
Date: 26/04/2010England's urban voters were signalling Clegg's newfound popularity, uncertainty about Cameron and antipathy towards Brown - well before the election campaign began - according to new analysis from the Centre for Cities and Ipsos MORI. In the year running up to the election campaign (February 2009 to February 2010):
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A third of urban voters didn't have a view on Clegg at all, but those that did tended to be more positive about him than of the other two leaders - and this was before the election campaign began.
Across the major cities we looked at, Nick Clegg's net approval rating was 13 percent, against 7 percent net approval for Cameron and 34 percent net disapproval for Brown.
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Urban voters were unhappy with Gordon Brown's leadership, with more than half of voters in every city we looked at dissatisfied with the way he was doing his job as Prime Minister.
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But urban voters were still in two minds about David Cameron. In Liverpool and Sheffield, over half of voters were dissatisfied with how David Cameron was doing his job as leader of the Opposition.
The analysis compares voting intentions in a selection of cities in the year leading up to the start of the election campaign with the 2005 general election result.
*weighted aggregate for voter intention polling data. Leeds, Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle and Sheffield are based on fewer than 100 interviews so should be seen as indicative only. **indicates UK share of the 2005 election result.
The research shows the Conservatives had made significant in-roads in cities like Birmingham and London - but Labour still had strong support in other major cities. Between February 2009 and February 2010:
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Labour maintained strong support in many of England's largest cities, outside London.
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But in Birmingham, support for the Conservative Party climbed to 44 percent, while Labour's support had fallen to 21 percent.
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And in London, Conservative support had jumped six points since 2005 to 40 percent, and Labour's support fell by eight points to 29 percent.
Residents of some cities were disillusioned with all politicians. Twice as many residents (16%) in the cities hit hard by the recession* said they won't vote at all in this election, compared to those living in more economically buoyant cities** (8%).
Dermot Finch, Chief Executive of the Centre for Cities said:
"Our analysis shows that the Urban Vote is shifting in England. Even before the campaign began, Labour was losing sway in Birmingham for example but maintaining support in other cities. The Tories were gaining ground in urban areas, but the jury was still out on Cameron. And Clegg's approval rating was higher than the other two leaders.
"All three parties have a stake in our cities. The next Government will need to support the recovery in our cities and reconnect with the Urban Voter - especially in struggling cities like Stoke and Barnsley."
Dr Roger Mortimore, Head of Political and Electoral Research at Ipsos MORI said:
"This research underlines the difficulties that the Labour party had in this period in retaining much of their support from the 2005 General Election in cities across England, as welas the low levels of satisfaction with Prime Minister Gordon Brown among these people. These applied to most of the cities we looked at, and especially so away from what may be Labour's 'heartland' cities.
"The political loyalties of urban residents did not appear 'set' in this research: in addition to Labour's and Brown's difficulties there are signs that these people were also divided on David Cameron, and that Nick Clegg was relatively popular even then. There is a lot to play for as the election approaches."
For more information, please contact:
Rosamund Taylor, External Affairs Manager, Centre for Cities
020 7803 4316 /07876 175 426
Notes to editors:
Urban Vote: Who will win the battle for the cities? by Hannah Brown and Claire Maugham is available for download at www.centreforcities.org/urbanvote
Further city-by-city polling data for Birmingham, Leeds, Liverpool, London, Manchester, Newcastle and Sheffield is available from the Centre for Cities external affairs office.
This analysis of voting intentions over the past year looks at seventeen cities, using research conducted by Ipsos MORI between February 2009 and February 2010 across a range of cities.
In looking at this time period and comparing it with the actual 2005 election result, we have examined the longer-term trends behind the urban vote, rather than seeking to present the latest snapshot of public opinion or to predict the election result in particular constituencies.
We have used data for the Parliamentary constituencies that ‘best fit' the Primary Urban Areas (PUA) - a measure of the ‘built-up' area of a city.
The cities include London and:
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Major cities - the six largest cities (by population size) outside the capital -Manchester, Leeds, Liverpool, Sheffield, Newcastle and Birmingham.
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*Struggling cities - five that have struggled for many years to recover from industrial decline and the impact of previous recessions, they've also been hit hard by the recession. We have looked at Hull, Doncaster, Stoke, Hastings and Barnsley.
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**Buoyant cities - five small cities with strong economies that have generated private sector jobs and businesses over the last decade. We've looked at responses in Milton Keynes, York, Reading, Brighton and Cambridge.
London and the UK's six major cities together account for nearly one-third of England's population, 35% of England's jobs, and 40% of England's wealth.
See Cities Outlook 2010 (www.centreforcities.org/outlook10) for more detailed analysis of the economic performance of UK cities.
For more on Centre for Cities' policy ideas on growing city economies, see www.citiesmanifesto.org.
The Centre for Cities is an independent, non-partisan research and policy institute. Committed to helping Britain's cities improve their economic performance, the Centre produces practical research and policy advice for city leaders, Whitehall and employers.
Ipsos MORI Methodology
Voting intention, satisfaction with the leaders and likelihood of voting
Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative sample of 13,605 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone in Ipsos MORI's monthly Political Monitor surveys between February 2009 to February 2010 (inclusive), using random digit dialling and quota sampling. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. Unless otherwise stated, bases are: London (1,389), Manchester (259), Leeds (126), Birmingham (360), Liverpool (124), Newcastle (133), Sheffield (135), Major cities (1,137), Struggling cities (216), Buoyant cities (131)
Issues of Concern to voters
Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 7,923 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. The questions are spontaneous - i.e. respondents are not prompted with any answers. Interviews were conducted face-to-face in Ipsos MORI regular Issues Index surveys between February 2009 to February 2010 (inclusive). Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. Unless otherwise stated, bases are: London (1,199), Manchester (260), Leeds (113), Birmingham (383), Liverpool (95), Newcastle (166), Sheffield (83), Major cities (1,100), Struggling cities (218), Buoyant cities (68)
For more details please see: http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchspecialisms/socialresearch/specareas/politics/trends.aspx.
Where percentages do not sum to 100, this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of ‘Don't Know' categories, or multiple answers.
